Syahrial Ali's Blog

As schedule on 2nd clarification meeting on May 15th 2009, the BWA reserved price will be announced on May 22nd, 2009. The reserved price concerning 2 block of BWA spectrum namely in block 13 (2360-2375MHz) and  block 14 (2375-2390MHz). However up until now, May 23rd, no announcement has been made. Public relation has apologized this condition and informed that the delay is just because of technical reason only. However, this delay will have an impact to the whole schedule. The whole processes was previously scheduled to finish in the 3rd week of June, 2009.

The reserved price calculation is more complicated than the 3G reserved price on 2006 tender. The main reason is 3G is nationwide while BWA is regional license. In BWA lciense, there are 15 regions, so there will be 15 reserved prices. Hence, the reserved price shall be calculated for every region.

The BWA spectrum licenses were cheaper than 3G licenses in many countries. In May 2005, Singapore conducted 140 MHz of frequency spectrum auction in 25 slots and awarded 6 BWA licenses in 2.3 GHz and 2.5 GHz frequency bands. IDA as regulator collected far less money than the S$100 million for a 3G license (2001, 20MHz FDD) compare to e.g. MobileOne 4 lots (about 20MHz)  for S$2.1 million, Pacific Internet 5 lots (about 25MHz) for S$2.27 million.

Indonesia 3G reserved price was IDR 100b for 5 MHz (FDD) for nationwide license. The BWA license will be 15 MHz (TDD) and it will divided into 15 regions. How low can it be? Just wait.

At the end of 2008, Indonesian wireless subscribers have reached 160m. Most of them are still prepaid subscriber which reached 155.8m (97%), just left 3% for postpaid. Telkomsel is still the biggest operator with 40% market, followed by Indosat and XL respectively.

In CDMA, Telkom Flexi led the market followed by Bakrie Esia and Mobile-8. The complete data can be seen on the table below.

Indonesian 2008 Wireless Subscribers Data

Indonesian BWA’s Tender attracts many companies. The participants reach 73 companies. They consist of various telecommunication related business from cellular telecommunication network provider (Bakrie, Smart telecom, Indosat), Internet Service Provider (Centrin), Telecommunication supplier and IT Solution (Berca), fixed network provider (Telkom, Batam Bintan Telekomunikasi), current data service provider (IM2, Elang Mahkota, Citra Sari Makmur, First Media), and many other companies. So, the BWA are the waited for license for many parties.

The maximum total winners will be 30 companies. It is because Indonesia has been divided into 15 regions. And in each region there will be 2 winners (2 blocks of frequency). However, it is easy to predict that the total winners will be less than that figure. The first reason is each participant can bid for more than 1 region. So, they may be the winner in many regions. The second reason is: not all regions are interesting for the investors. At the end we may find out that the total winner will be less than 30.

The total participants are predicted to decrease when the reserved price is announced. The reserved price will be informed on Friday May 15th, 2009. Welcome BWA and welcome WiMAX.